Downscaling the ocean response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Northwest Atlantic and adjacent shelf seas

May 6, 2024·
Christoph Renkl
Christoph Renkl
,
Oliver, E.C.J.
,
Thompson, K.R.
· 0 min read
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Abstract
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction is a global effort to forecast the state of the atmosphere and ocean with lead times between two weeks and a season. This study explores the feasibility of S2S prediction of the ocean using a variety of tools including statistical analysis, a statistical-dynamical mixed layer model, and a regional, high-resolution ocean circulation model based on physical principles. Ocean predictability on S2S timescales is analyzed by compositing winter sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic with respect to the state of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). It is found that statistically significant, large-scale SST changes, particularly along the eastern seaboard of North America, can be related to the MJO. This signal is shown to be driven by anomalous air–sea heat fluxes caused by atmospheric perturbations in response to the MJO. The high-resolution model of the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf is used to downscale the mean ocean response to the MJO. The model is able to capture the observed relationship between the MJO and SST in the northwest Atlantic. It is also shown that the anomalous atmospheric circulation in response to the MJO leads to anomalous upwelling on the Scotian Shelf. Overall, this study demonstrates that it is feasible, and of value, to use regional ocean models for S2S prediction.
Type
Publication
Climate Dynamics, 62, 6719–6744
publications
Christoph Renkl
Authors
Christoph Renkl
Regional Weather and
Climate Modeling Group

I am a climate scientist with background in atmospheric science and physical oceanography. My research focuses on interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere within climate as an integrated system. The overarching goal of my research is to better understand the role of air-sea-ice interactions and their teleconnections in weather and climate variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. I am particularly interested in combining coupled numerical models and observations using a variety of statistical tools to improve our understanding of the climate system, including questions of predictability, longterm trends, and extreme events.

Currently, I am a Deputy Professor in Meteorology at the University of Bonn where I am leading the research group Regional Weather and Climate Modeling.